Student List government plans slow foreign policy shift after domestic reforms

Serbia’s new government will prioritize internal institutional repairs over immediate changes to its external alliances, according to regional experts. The Student List secured a decisive victory in Sunday’s election, ending 14 years of rule by Aleksandar Vucic and the Serbian Progressive Party. As Belgrade prepares for a turbulent transition and upcoming presidential elections in December, international observers are assessing how this leadership change will alter Serbia’s diplomatic posture.

Aleksandar Popov, director of the Centre for Regionalism in Novi Sad, stated that a rapid reset in regional relations is unlikely. He explained that the new authorities must first address domestic problems, including a system that has captured democratic institutions, the judiciary, the prosecution service, the police, and the media sector. Popov noted that tidying up at home will take precedence over solving problems with neighbors, even though the outgoing regime undermined regional ties.

Relations with Croatia remain the most complex, marked by frequent sharp words and a history of nationalist clashes. Popov described the previous dynamic as one where Zagreb and Belgrade would retaliate against each other’s internal and external enemies. Despite public hostility, the two sides held quiet convergence on Bosnia and Herzegovina, with Belgrade backing Republika Srpska leader Milorad Dodik and Zagreb favoring a third entity. Popov hopes the new expert-led government will stabilize the region and revive Serbia’s hopes of joining the European Union by repairing damaged neighborly ties.

Vuk Vuksanovic, a lecturer in foreign policy at King’s College London, predicted that foreign policy will transform the least under the forthcoming governmental changes. He argued that many international and domestic structures shaping Serbian policy will remain in place. While Russian influence will face a blow due to the end of uncritical glorification in state-controlled media and downgraded intelligence cooperation, Vuksanovic said the new government is unlikely to adopt a hawkish stance overnight. Serbia still needs preferential gas prices, the Kosovo dispute remains unresolved, and parts of the public remain disillusioned with the West.

Regarding Ukraine, Serbia will maintain its policy of not recognizing the annexation of Crimea and Donbas. However, Vuksanovic noted a question mark over ammunition deliveries, as the opposition viewed Vucic’s weapons sales to Kyiv as a cynical ploy to buy Western tolerance for his domestic rule. The new government will not see value in joining EU sanctions or adopting a hawkish stance toward Moscow.

Serbia’s relationship with Israel is another critical dimension of its external relations. Bosko Jaksic, a foreign policy analyst, stated that ties will not be severed, but recent controversial agreements will face scrutiny. The new government will re-examine newly concluded contracts, primarily those concerning Serbian ammunition exports to Israel and Israeli surveillance equipment exports to Serbia. Jaksic noted that Netanyahu’s government has lost another authoritarian, nationalist ally in Europe, but Serbia’s future stance will also depend on political developments in Jerusalem. How Israel positions itself toward the new authorities in Belgrade depends largely on the outcome of Israel’s own elections.

Jaksic emphasized that Serbia’s policy of sitting on multiple chairs, which he argued brought more harm than good, will certainly be re-evaluated. He suggested it is realistic to expect Belgrade to strengthen ties with the European Union. As Serbia enters this new political era, the international community should expect a period of intense internal reform rather than sudden geopolitical realignments.