Trump Inner Circle Splits on Israel Election Endorsement as Netanyahu Polling Slides
US officials reveal growing internal support for partnering with Israel's opposition should Benjamin Netanyahu lose the upcoming October 27 vote.
By David Almasi ·
A significant rift has emerged within the White House regarding the strategic direction of US-Israel relations ahead of the October 27 election. While President Donald Trump officially endorsed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, a substantial portion of his senior advisory team is preparing for the possibility that the incumbent may lose his majority. US officials indicated that the administration is optimistic about the opportunity to work with Netanyahu's political rivals if they secure power, signaling a pragmatic shift in policy planning.
The tension stems from a belief among the president's closest aides that Trump should have stayed neutral in the Israeli race. One adviser described the current dynamic by noting that Netanyahu is the devil the president knows. This sentiment suggests that while the endorsement was made, the groundwork is being laid for a transition that would allow the administration to engage with a new leadership structure in Jerusalem without significant friction.
Vice President JD Vance addressed the division this week, clarifying his personal stance while deferring to the president. Vance stated that he is neither attacking nor endorsing Netanyahu, emphasizing that the president's endorsement is the one that ultimately matters. This careful wording reflects the administration's attempt to maintain unity in public messaging while acknowledging internal disagreements about the optimal path forward.
Strains within the administration over broader regional policy further complicate the relationship. US Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack raised specific concerns about the Netanyahu government's approach to Syria. Following Israeli strikes on a base in Idlib province, Barrack described the move as an unnecessary escalation that does not advance regional stability. His comments highlight a growing desire within the State Department for a more restrained military posture in the region.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio and his team have maintained a generally better relationship with the prime minister. However, they believe Israel could do more to strengthen the Lebanese government. Their team has also expressed frustration with what they view as a failure by Netanyahu to curb settler attacks on Palestinians in the West Bank. These diplomatic frictions suggest that even within the faction favoring continuity, there are expectations for policy adjustments.
The internal debate coincides with a weakening polling position for the prime minister. The latest Maariv poll shows the opposition bloc widening its lead to 54 seats, while Netanyahu's bloc has dropped to 48. This shift in public sentiment has likely accelerated the administration's preparations for a potential change in government, ensuring that US policy is ready to adapt to the outcome of the vote.
Public opinion data also indicates a strong preference for stability over another election cycle. Sixty percent of respondents prefer a unity government if the election fails to produce a clear majority, while only 23% favored holding another election. Among those supporting a unity government, 33% wanted a candidate from the opposition bloc to lead it, compared to 19% who preferred Netanyahu. Another 8% supported such a government regardless of leadership.
In a direct head-to-head matchup for the premiership, Benny Gantz, known as Eisenkot in the source text, led Netanyahu with 49% support against 41% for the incumbent. As the election date approaches, the US administration appears to be hedging its bets, ensuring it can work effectively with either outcome while navigating the complex internal dynamics of its own foreign policy team.
