159 Million Brazilians Face a Tied Runoff as Lula Rallies Copacabana

Brazil’s presidential election has reached a decisive impasse, with national opinion polls showing the two candidates statistically tied ahead of the final vote.

On Saturday, tens of thousands of supporters gathered on Rio de Janeiro’s Copacabana beach to bolster the campaign of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. The crowd, dressed predominantly in red, filled the 2.5-mile stretch of the shoreline in a procession that local observers described as resembling a carnival. Activists displayed a large yellow and green banner with the message, “WE ARE GOING TO TURN THIS AROUND!” The rally serves as a final mobilization effort before Sunday’s runoff, where close to 159 million Brazilians are eligible to cast ballots.

The contest is defined by a statistical anomaly in modern Brazilian political history. Flávio Bolsonaro won the first round on 4 October with 47% of the vote, compared to 45% for Lula. Since democracy was restored in Brazil in the 1980s, no candidate who lost the first round has successfully reversed the result to win the runoff. Consequently, a victory for the sitting president would break a decades-long trend.

Reactions from the crowd on the beach reflected a mix of optimism and urgency. Josias Silva, a 61-year-old truck driver carrying a homemade sign, stated that the large student-led protests indicated that “the people have woken up.” He predicted Lula would secure more than 60% of the vote, a margin far exceeding the narrow gap suggested by current polling data. Isabella Gaze, a 64-year-old retired teacher, noted the high stakes of the contest by saying, “This isn’t a normal election.”

The political narrative has shifted in recent days due to allegations against the Bolsonaro campaign. Last week, the magazine Piauí reported that Flávio Bolsonaro attended a boat party during the peak of the 2020 coronavirus outbreak. The event allegedly included sex workers and vaccine lobbyists seeking agreements with his father’s government. These reports have contributed to a recent climb in Lula’s polling numbers, positioning him as the slight favorite according to most analysts, despite his first-round loss.

For many voters, the election is framed as a defense of democratic institutions. Jair Bolsonaro, the father of the far-right candidate, is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence for plotting a coup after his defeat in 2022. Marta Moraes, a 59-year-old restaurateur, expressed opposition to “Bolsonarismo” specifically, citing the loss of four relatives due to government neglect during the pandemic. Press reports suggest that if Flávio Bolsonaro wins, several of his father’s fellow plotters could receive senior military and police appointments.

Bolsonaro supporters held a counter-rally in Belo Horizonte, the capital of Minas Gerais. Thousands gathered in Praça da Liberdade wearing yellow jerseys and waving flags. Minas Gerais holds the country’s second-largest electorate and is considered a critical bellwether state; no candidate has won the presidency without carrying it. Flávio Bolsonaro led Lula in this state by just under 5% in the first round.

The next scheduled event is the presidential runoff vote on Sunday. Voters will choose between the leftwing incumbent and the far-right challenger in a decision that will determine the future of Brazil’s executive branch and its relationship with the military establishment.