Palestinian voters hold key to breaking Israeli Knesset deadlock

Palestinian citizens of Israel may determine the next government.

With elections scheduled for next week, polling data indicates a stalemate among Jewish Israeli parties. Benjamin Netanyahu's far-right coalition is expected to lose its current majority in the 120-seat Knesset. However, the opposition bloc is also projected to fall short of the 61 seats needed to form a government.

In this scenario, the 12 to 15 seats won by Palestinian parties become the tipping point. These seats are split between the Islamist Ra'am party and the Joint List, an alliance that includes the Ta'al party. The outcome will depend on which bloc can secure enough support from these seats to cross the majority threshold.

Ahmad Tibi, who leads Ta'al, said the community is focused on removing the current administration. "We are determined to do everything in order to bring this government down. And high turnout among the Arab community is one important tool in achieving this goal," Tibi said. He has served in the Knesset for more than two decades.

Political dynamics have shifted in recent years. Most of the Jewish opposition has previously ruled out forming a coalition with Arab politicians. Netanyahu and his allies have also worked to make such alliances unpopular. Campaign posters have used slogans like "It's the right or Palestine" and "Bibi or Tibi." Despite this, precedents exist for cooperation. In 2021, Ra'am leader Mansour Abbas joined a coalition with Naftali Bennett. Netanyahu himself once opened talks with Abbas.

A prospective voter named Mohammed, who manages staff at a hi-tech company, expects the opposition to change its stance once results are in. "At the end of the day, everything is mathematics, right? One plus one is two," he said. He is currently urging friends from different backgrounds to vote.

Tibi acknowledged the difficulties of an alliance. He noted that few opposition parties support a two-state solution and many back the settlement movement in the West Bank. "It's between bad and worse," Tibi said, contrasting the opposition with Netanyahu, Bezalel Smotrich, and Itamar Ben-Gvir.

Fear is driving many voters to the polls. Sami Abu Shehadeh, leader of the Balad party, said the primary motivation is concern over another four years of far-right ministers. "The biggest motivation is fear," Abu Shehadeh said. He cited death in Gaza, violence in the West Bank, and rising discrimination inside Israel as factors deepening voter worry. He warned that voters understand the danger if the current leadership returns.

The election takes place on the eve of the anniversary of the 1956 Kfar Qasim massacre. In that event, border police killed 49 residents who had broken an unknown curfew. Amjed Iraqi of the International Crisis Group said the vote is about mitigating future policies. He noted that a returning far-right coalition would have a mandate to accelerate annexation and other measures. "There's no clarity about what comes afterwards," Iraqi said.