Netanyahu Loses Ground as Arab Parties Secure Historic Vote

Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party lost ground in the recent Israeli election, dropping from 23.4% of the vote in 2022 to 20.8% with 85% of ballots counted. The decline leaves the Prime Minister without a clear path to a majority in the 120-seat Knesset, despite his party remaining the largest single entity.

Arab-led parties captured 14.9% of the vote, a historic share that complicates the math for any government formation. Local media projected that Likud and its allies would secure 53 seats. Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party and its partners are projected to hold 48 seats. The Arab-led bloc holds 19 seats.

A coalition requires 61 seats to command a majority. Neither the right-wing bloc led by Netanyahu nor the centrist camp led by Eisenkot currently reaches that threshold. The gap forces leaders to negotiate across ideological lines that have traditionally divided Israeli politics.

Voter turnout reached nearly 78%, the highest level since 1999. This surge in participation reflects deep dissatisfaction with the current government. Many voters cited anger over military draft exemptions for the ultra-Orthodox population and frustration with the prolonged war in Gaza.

Netanyahu dismissed the idea of partnering with Arab-led parties on Wednesday. He warned against a dangerous government and called such an alliance treasonous. He stated that he would not work with parties representing 20% of Israel’s population. The Arab parties have also ruled out any partnership with him.

Gadi Eisenkot, the top challenger, left the door open to working with Arab parties under specific conditions. He requires their recognition of Israel as a Jewish state and their acknowledgment of Hamas as an extremist group. It remains unclear if his other likely partners, who have previously rejected such alliances, will agree to these terms to remove Netanyahu from office.

The Central Elections Committee estimated that counting absentee ballots for military personnel and diplomats will continue until Thursday evening. There are roughly half-million such ballots. Israeli law requires official results to be certified by November 4.

President Isaac Herzog is not required to task the leader of the largest party with forming a government. He stated on Wednesday that he must do everything possible to avoid another round of elections. Eisenkot agreed, telling supporters that it is a mistake to hold another election after such high turnout.

If no coalition forms a majority, Israel could face new elections early next year. The country held five elections between April 2019 and November 2022 due to similar political deadlocks. Minority governments are also possible, though they rely on external support to pass legislation.

The election result has reignited debate over national identity. Mansour Abbas, leader of the United Arab List, declared that his party is no longer on the sidelines. Awni Zoabi in Nazareth thanked God for a return to rationality, noting that the Arabic language had become treated like a crime in public discourse.