Likud Leads Netanyahu's Bloc in Partial Count, Outperforming Exit Polls

Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party emerged as the largest political force in Israel’s national election, securing 1,006,726 votes, or 20.74%, according to partial results from the Central Elections Committee. The count, which reached 85% completion at 2:32 p.m. on Wednesday, showed the Prime Minister’s right-wing bloc holding a distinct advantage over the opposition led by Gadi Eisenkot. This performance exceeded the projections made by major news channels following the closure of polling stations.

The right-wing coalition, which includes Likud, United Torah Judaism, Otzma Yehudit, Shas, and Religious Zionism-Zehut, accumulated a total of 2,042,210 votes. This aggregate represents 42.07% of the 4,875,751 votes tallied at 11,168 stations. Based on these figures, Israeli media projected that Netanyahu’s bloc would secure 53 seats in the Knesset. In contrast, the opposition bloc led by Eisenkot’s Yashar party was projected to win 48 seats, while Arab parties were expected to take 19.

The opposition bloc, comprising Yashar, B’Yachad, the Democrats, and Yisrael Beiteinu, received 1,828,149 votes, or 37.66% of the total. Yashar alone garnered 786,109 votes, accounting for 16.19% of the count. Although the right-wing bloc leads in the partial tally, it still falls short of the 61 seats required to form a governing coalition without additional partners. The margin between the two major blocs remains subject to change as the final counting process continues.

Exit polls published on Tuesday night presented a fragmented picture of the election outcome. Channel 14 projected 30 Knesset seats for Likud and 60 for Netanyahu’s bloc, a figure significantly higher than the 50 seats projected for the right-wing coalition by Channels 12 and 13. Those other outlets projected 52 and 53 seats, respectively, for the opposition bloc. The variance between these projections and the actual partial count suggests that early models underestimated the performance of the right-wing parties.

Netanyahu addressed the nation on Tuesday night, declaring that the results proved Likud was the largest party in Israel. He criticized media outlets for manipulating public opinion with surveys that predicted lower seat counts for his party. The Prime Minister stated that the right-wing bloc held a clear majority among the Zionist public and argued for the formation of a strong national government that did not rely on anti-Zionist parties. He emphasized the need to avoid a coalition that depended on parties opposing the existence of a Jewish state.

Gideon Sa’ar, Israel’s Foreign Minister and a Likud Knesset candidate, echoed Netanyahu’s confidence on social media. He described the left’s early celebrations as premature and called the certainty of biased commentators ludicrous. Sa’ar shared archival footage of Menachem Begin, the founder of Likud, urging patience with election results in 1977. Eisenkot, conversely, characterized the initial exit polls as a vote of no confidence in the current government, pledging to form a Zionist conscription government if the results held.

The counting process involves double-envelope ballots cast by soldiers, evacuees, and other eligible voters outside their regular polling stations. These ballots are expected to be counted through Thursday, with a final tally anticipated by Friday. Surplus-vote agreements between parties may also influence the final seat distribution. Once official results are published on November 4, President Isaac Herzog will consult with party leaders to determine who receives the first mandate to form a government.

Herzog urged political parties to approach coalition negotiations with an open mind to prevent a repeat election. The President noted that he would receive official results from Justice Noam Sohlberg, the chairman of the Central Elections Committee, next week. The law grants the first designated candidate 28 days, extendable by 14, to form a coalition. If that attempt fails, the President may assign a second candidate, and if that also fails, a coalition of at least 61 members can request a third candidate, who would have 14 days to succeed.

Approximately 7.33 million Israelis were eligible to vote in this election, an increase of 543,177 since 2022. Roughly 330,000 young voters cast their ballots for the first time. Polling stations opened at 7 a.m. and closed at 10 p.m. on Tuesday. The vote for the 26th Knesset was the first general election held since the Hamas-led massacre on October 7, 2023. Military voting began on October 21 at bases in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria, while diplomats abroad began voting on October 15.