Israel's Vote Leaves Netanyahu and Eisenkot Short of Knesset Majority

Israeli voters delivered a fragmented Knesset on Friday, leaving neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor rival Gadi Eisenkot with the 61 seats needed to govern the 120-member assembly. Coalition talks now begin, with a deadline to form a government or face a fresh vote early next year.

Arab-led parties secured 19 seats, a historic result that puts them in position to determine the outcome. Arab citizens make up 20% of Israel's population and are Palestinians whose families remained after the 1948 war surrounding the state's creation. They maintain ties to Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza, a connection that many Jewish Israelis view with suspicion.

One path would pair Eisenkot with Arab-led parties for 67 seats, enough to govern without Netanyahu. Backing from those parties could also sustain a minority government without a formal coalition. The risk sits with Eisenkot's Jewish allies. Netanyahu has cast any such partnership as a threat to Israel's Jewish identity and to national security. Only once, in 2021, has an Arab party joined a governing coalition, and that government lasted about 18 months.

Netanyahu's own route to 67 seats runs through Eisenkot and his right-leaning partners, which would push Arab-led parties, ultranationalists and ultra-Orthodox factions into opposition. Such a government could address military exemptions for the ultra-Orthodox and the state of the economy. Eisenkot and his allies have pledged not to serve under Netanyahu, blaming him for security failures around Hamas's Oct. 7, 2023 attack, for undermining democratic institutions, and they point to his ongoing corruption trial. Netanyahu's government would be unlikely to approve an official inquiry into the Oct. 7 attack, a demand opposition voters consider essential.

Netanyahu may also look to pull defectors from the opposition, including right-wing leaders Naftali Bennett or Avigdor Lieberman. Both back nationalist policies such as expanding settlements in the occupied West Bank and would resist partnering with Arab parties. Both have clashed with Netanyahu for years, vowed not to work with him, and oppose the military exemptions demanded by his ultra-Orthodox allies. Eisenkot has fewer options on that front; Netanyahu's Likud and his far-right and ultra-Orthodox partners have stayed loyal to him.

If neither side reaches 61 seats, new elections would follow, likely early next year, with Netanyahu's government serving as caretaker until then. Opposition momentum could fade, including from tens of thousands of Israelis who flew in to vote and might not return. Smaller right-wing parties that missed the parliamentary threshold wasted pro-Netanyahu votes, and those supporters could shift to larger far-right parties. After a similar stalemate in 2019, Israel held five elections in 3 1/2 years.

Tia Goldenberg has covered Israeli politics for nearly two decades.