Eisenkot and Liberman Clash Over Minority Path as Speaker Race Looms

A significant rift has emerged within the coalition of parties seeking to replace Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, centering on the mechanics of forming the next administration. While the bloc as a whole is considering a minority government, key figures are split on the viability of this strategy. This internal debate occurs against the backdrop of an impending election where polling data suggests the change-seeking parties hold an advantage over the current ruling alliance, though neither side has secured a clear path to a stable majority.

The timeline of this political maneuvering began with recent electoral surveys indicating that the anti-Netanyahu camp is ahead in seat projections. However, under current agreements, these parties fall short of the 61-seat threshold traditionally required for governance. In contrast, the outgoing coalition remains close to parity in many polls, with some showing them holding enough seats to govern. The final seat distribution may hinge on the electoral threshold, meaning that even a small shift in voter preference could determine whether Israel establishes a new government or endures another cycle of political instability.

Gadi Eisenkot, who is positioning himself to lead the opposition and serve as the primary candidate for government formation, has rejected a rotation deal with Netanyahu. He has proposed a scenario where his coalition wins 58 or 59 seats and forms a minority government. This administration would be sworn in following a confidence vote without permanent support from 61 members of the Knesset. The strategy involves attempting to expand its parliamentary base after taking office.

Legal experts note that while a confidence vote requires a majority to pass, it does not strictly demand 61 affirmative votes, meaning abstentions could facilitate the swearing-in process. This distinction is crucial because removing an incumbent government via a constructive vote of no confidence still requires 61 supporters. Consequently, the minority model may assist in government formation but would not enable the opposition to oust Netanyahu’s current cabinet by a simple majority.

Avigdor Liberman, however, categorically opposes this approach. He insists on a Zionist majority from the outset and rejects the idea of a transitional or minority government. Liberman has stated that facing another election is preferable to a government that does not meet his conditions. He has also proposed bringing in Likud members who are not affiliated with Netanyahu, claiming some would be willing, although no public negotiations are currently underway and specific names have not been released.

Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, who lead the Beyachad list, share Liberman’s demand for a Zionist government and refuse to rely on votes or abstentions from Arab parties. Yair Golan, chairman of the Democrats, has not ruled out cooperation with Ra'am. A recent meeting between Eisenkot and Liberman resulted in a joint call to boost voter turnout but failed to resolve their fundamental disagreement. Leadership competition remains intense, with Eisenkot seeking to head the largest party and Bennett viewing himself as the natural choice due to his prior experience as prime minister.

Simultaneously, the bloc is nearing an agreement to replace Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana before any coalition deal is finalized. This move is intended to give Netanyahu’s opponents control over the parliamentary agenda, even if he remains head of a caretaker government. The speaker is elected early in the term via a public vote, and the opposition could potentially assemble a majority by drawing support from Arab party members. Names raised for the position include Chili Tropper, Matan Kahana, and Elazar Stern from Eisenkot’s list, alongside Meirav Ben-Ari and Eitan Ginzburg from the Bennett-Lapid list, Efrat Rayten of the Democrats, and attorney Oded Forer of Yisrael Beytenu.

The bloc also aims to advance several legislative priorities, including a state commission of inquiry into October 7, changes to conscription laws, and limits on the prime minister’s tenure. Liberman additionally wants to bar individuals facing criminal charges from serving as prime minister. While party teams have begun coordinating, no binding agreement exists on the details or the order of these initiatives. Obstacles remain, as not all members support every judicial change, and the memory of the previous Bennett-Lapid government’s collapse looms over the effort to pass new laws.