Youth Ballot Could Reshape 12 Knesset Seats in Tuesday Election

Israel heads to the polls on Tuesday, October 27, for a general election where a specific demographic cohort holds disproportionate influence. The Israel Democracy Institute estimates that 640,000 citizens aged 18 to 22 are eligible to vote. This group constitutes nearly 10% of the total electorate and possesses enough ballot weight to determine the outcome of up to 12 seats in the 120-member Knesset.

The economic profile of this voting bloc is distinct. Surveys conducted by the IDI in May indicated that between 80% and 95% of prospective first-time voters intend to cast a ballot. Secular Jewish youth showed the highest certainty, while 87% of Arab respondents expressed the same intent. For comparison, the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement recorded a youth turnout of 47% in the 2024 US presidential election.

Tammy Hoffman, head of the education policy program at the IDI, noted that the institute co-sponsored a voter engagement event with the Yigal Allon Center in Tel Aviv. She stated that if turnout matches the high levels suggested by research, this demographic will materially affect the final tally. Hoffman attributed the high engagement levels to the unique formative experiences of this generation, including the pandemic, judicial reform protests, and the events of October 7.

Economic concerns dominate the policy preferences of young voters across both Jewish and Arab populations. A separate poll for Ynet and Yedioth Ahronoth found that 67% of young respondents were certain they would vote, with another 19% likely to participate. National security and the cost of living ranked as the top issues for this group. Hoffman observed that military service can shift political views, often prompting questions about war goals that differ from the general trend of rightward movement among Israeli voters.

An N12 poll conducted on September 23 found that 74% of young people identified their views as right-wing or center-right, while 23% identified as left-wing or center-left. In that same poll, 16% indicated they would vote for Yashar, led by Gadi Eisenkot, and 14% would vote for Likud, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Netanyahu has held office since 2009, aside from a brief period in 2021 and 2022.

Individual voting intentions reflect a mix of economic and security calculations. Yael Chernyvsky, an 18-year-old from Ramat Hasharon in an army preparation program in the Negev, plans to support either the Democrats or Yashar. Both parties are part of the opposition bloc seeking to replace the current government. She cited a desire to change the country's future as her primary motivation.

Omer Gross, an 18-year-old from Jerusalem currently in a preparation program in the Golan, intends to vote for the Religious Zionist party. He supports the policies of leaders Bezalel Smotrich and Moshe Feiglin in the West Bank, stating, "We need a strong, secure Israel." Khalel Alaa Sabeh, an 18-year-old from Shef-Amra, prioritizes closing resource gaps in Arab communities and tackling crime. He described his stance by saying, "I won't leave the country. This is my land, this is my home."