Garyfallos Konstantinoudis warns heat killed 50,391 Europeans, 800 under 45
Researchers estimate that human-caused warming accounted for 32,619 of the excess deaths across 854 cities in June, July, and August.
By Carmen Wojcik ·
More than 50,000 people in Europe died from extreme heat during the summer of 2026. A new study estimates that 50,391 individuals succumbed to warmer temperatures across the continent. The research team determined that nearly two-thirds of these fatalities resulted from heat intensified by human activity.
The study, set to appear in Nature Health, modeled heat-related deaths by age group in 854 European cities. The analysis covers repeated heat waves occurring in June, July, and August. Researchers calculated that 32,619 of the total deaths were attributable to the added heat from burning coal, oil, and gas. This figure represents a 71% increase compared to the previous deadliest summer in 2022, when the same team counted 29,480 deaths.
Italy, France, Spain, and Germany recorded the highest death tolls. The authors note that the current figures are likely an underestimate. The study excludes a deadly heat wave in May and covers only the 854 cities, which hold about 40% of Europe's population.
Garyfallos Konstantinoudis, a biostatistician at Imperial College London and co-author of the study, stated that about one-third of the deaths occurred between June 17 and July 1. During that period, temperatures ran 5.3 C above normal. While more than half of the victims were 85 or older, the heat claimed the lives of more than 800 people aged 20 to 44.
Clair Barnes, a climate scientist at Imperial College London and the lead author, said some cities experienced temperatures 12 C above normal. She noted that much of Western and Northern Europe has infrastructure not designed to cope with current temperatures. Barnes added that Europe is the fastest-warming continent, now 2.5 C hotter than in pre-industrial times. She explained that this extra warming can tip temperatures from uncomfortable to dangerous and potentially deadly.
To isolate the impact of climate change, the team ran computer simulations of a world without climate change and compared them with actual deaths. The difference represents the effect of global warming. Barnes said the share of heat deaths attributable to warming has risen from about 45% in the early 2000s to 65% now. Because heat deaths are often underreported, the researchers used statistical modeling based on age and each city's optimal temperature.
The model produced 2,700 excess deaths for the May and June heat waves in Britain, while the United Kingdom's health statistics agency reported 2,800. Dr. Howard Frumkin, former director of the National Center for Environmental Health in the U.S., said the trends produce higher and more reliable counts as tools become more accurate. Outside experts, including Dr. Courtney Howard of the Canadian Medical Association, called for investment in early-warning systems and equitable access to cooling.
Dr. Jonathan Patz of the University of Wisconsin-Madison stressed the need to address fossil fuel burning. He argued that society cannot keep mopping up the mess on the floor without thinking about turning the faucet off. The findings suggest that adaptation measures must go hand in hand with cutting emissions to manage future risks.
